Search results for "balance of payments"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Reforming the international financial and monetary system: from Keynes to Davidson and Stiglitz
2004
International audience; With the usual debates trumpeting the usual merits of fixed versus flexible exchange rates, or some various incarnations thereof, the authors draw attention to Keynes's original plan for an international clearing union. The paper takes a close look at Joseph Stiglitz's recent suggestions to deal with financial crises along with Paul Davidson's Keynes-Post Keynesian clearinghouse. In the former case, the analysis is left wanting: the author offers nothing more than simple solutions to a system in need of dramatic changes. On the other hand, Davidson's analysis of the current state of affairs requires more than mere "plumbing" and addresses the root causes of the crise…
The World Bank's Early Reflections On Development: A Development Institution Or A Bank?
2008
Until the late 1960s, the World Bank presented itself as an institution devoted to making sound and directly productive project loans. Yet, during its early years, discussions took place within the Bank regarding the possibility of issuing different types of loans, namely (i) loans aimed at tackling social issues (‘social loans’), and (ii) loans aimed at providing foreign currency to address disequilibria in the balance of payments (‘impact loans’). This paper brings together historical analysis and theories of organization development to study the housing issue as a case in point. The analysis reveals that the Bank was unwilling to lend for housing programmes not because these were not sou…
Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach
2020
Abstract We develop a probabilistic approach to measure a country's external debt sustainability. Using data on international investment position and balance of payments from the International Monetary Fund, we estimate a vector autoregressive model for 38 countries (11 developed and 27 developing). Using the estimated parameters, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the distribution of the capacity to repay for each country. A large portion of the projected distribution to the right of current debt is a warning indicator, signalling the need for devaluation. We provide simulations for each country. One scenario is where the discount factor is lower than 1. According to the litera…
Réformes évolutionnistes du système des paiements internationaux : la création de systèmes des paiements supranationaux, une nécessité au regard des …
2012
At the height of the crisis, the international monetary system is powerless to reduce theinstability of exchange rates, the imbalance of the current account of balance ofpayments, instability of exchange rates and the development of speculation in financialmarkets the and the asymmetry between net exporters countries and net deficits countries.This thesis, which had the merit of opening new tracks in order to understand thecomplex relationships between global imbalances and the actual system, showed thatthese global imbalances are intrinsically linked to the failures of the internationalmonetary structure. To stop the deterioration of global imbalances, we propose that thesystem turns towar…
Hard currency indebtedness of the developed socialist countries
1985
In recent years the problems of the indebtedness of the communist countries have been driven somewhat into the background by the high foreign indebtedness of many developing countries and the attention attracted by the balance of payments crises in Brazil and Mexico. Yet there are many indications that the need for the socialist debtor nations to adjust their balance of payments policy has not lessened but, to a large extent, simply been deferred. It is therefore not unlikely that the 1980s will witness a new need to solve the problems of those nations and their creditors in the West.
Transport in Spain: economic analysis of the sector
1982
Abstract This article analyses the evolution of the transport sector in Spain in recent years, the analysis being presented in three parts. The first part is an analysis of the sector from a macroeconomic point of view and its relation to the most relevant macromagnitudes of the Spanish Economy. The relative importance and relationship of transport is shown in relation to Gross Domestic Product, the evolution and the significance of the different modes of transportation, its significance in the Gross Formation of Fixed Capital and the relationship between transport and energy, balance of payments, employment and the public sector. The second part of the paper is a microeconomic analysis of …
Balance of payments crises and fiscal adjustment measures
1991
A model with optimizing firms and consumers is used to explore the effects of unannounced and preannounced fiscal adjustment policies that are intended to prevent an impending balance of payments crisis. It is shown that preannouncement unambiguously raises the required fiscal adjustment effort so that, from the government's point of view, “cold turkey” is the preferable policy. The effect of preannouncement on the private sector's adjustment cost is ambiguous since preannouncement induces an externality which may either benefit or harm the private sector, depending on the nature of the measure that is preannounced.
The Global Crisis and Alternative Scenarios to Save the Euro: A Spanish Perspective
2013
That the euro was in trouble became evident after the financial markets' turmoil the summer of 2007. The global financial crisis called into question some of the dogma propounded by the champions of liberal capitalism, such as the efficiency of financial markets. Whereas in the US several banks went bankrupt, in the EU the banking sector was recapitalised, and fiscal measures were taken to support companies and families, and to stimulate the economy; moreover, an institutional framework was set up to improve financial regulation and supervision. The banking and financial crisis was followed, as usual, by a debt crisis. In 2010–11, successive European Summits accelerated the creation of fina…